Extremely Bearish Ahead of US Data


The pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support level at 0.9540

Bearish view

  • Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.9540.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.9900.
  • Timeline: 3 days.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy-stop at 0.9800 and a take-profit at 1.000.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.9700.

The EUR/USD price continued dipping on Monday morning as the crisis in Ukraine continued and after the strong American job’s numbers. It dropped to a low of 0.9742, which was the lowest level since September 30th. This price was about 2.58% below the highest-level last week.


US inflation data ahead

The EUR/USD price remained under pressure as the US dollar strength continued. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the labor market maintained its strength in September. The unemployment rate dropped from 3.8% to 3.5%, the lowest it has been since May this year.

In addition, the agency said that the economy created more than 263k jobs in September, which was better than the median estimate of 235k. This increase was much lower than what the bank created in the previous month.

Additional data published during the week showed that the country’s initial jobless claims rose in the prior week. The economy has more than 10 million job vacancies. Therefore, analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking interest rates in the coming months since inflation remains at a multi-decade high.

The next key data to watch will be America’s consumer inflation data scheduled on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the headline CPI dropped from 8.3% to 8.1%. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen from 6.3% to 6.5%.

The other important catalyst for the EUR/USD price will be minutes of the latest Federal Reserve minutes which will also come on Wednesday. In its most recent meeting, the bank decided to hike interest rates by another 0.75%. These minutes will provide more information about the bank’s outlook.

The EUR/USD price will also react to the ongoing happenings in Ukraine. The war is expected to escalate after the Crimean bridge was attacked.

EUR/USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few days. It has moved below the important support level at 0.9866, which was the lowest level on September 6. The 25-day and 50-day moving averages have made a bearish crossover while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued falling.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support level at 0.9540. The stop-loss at this level will be at 0.9900.


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