Steady as Brainard Points to Fed Pivot

The GBP/USD price will next react to the important economic data from the UK. 

Bullish view

  • Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1860.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.1647.
  • Timeline: 1 day.

Bearish view

  • Set a sell-stop at 1.1720 and a take-profit at 1.1650.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.1825.

The GBP/USD rally stalled ahead of a pivotal week for sterling and UK markets. It was trading at 1.1755 on Tuesday morning, slightly lower than the highest point this week. Focus now shifts to the upcoming UK economic data and autumn statement.

UK jobs, inflation, and autumn statement

The GBP/USD price wavered in the overnight session after Fed’s vice chair pointed to the end of jumbo rate hikes. In an interview with Bloomberg, Lael Brainard said that the Fed believes that inflation has peaked, which calls for an end to the 0.75% hikes it has made in the past four straight meetings.

Therefore, most analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking interest rates at a slower pace in the coming meetings. Precisely, the Fed’s rate monitor expects that the bank will hike by 0.50% in December followed by smaller increases in February and March. The Fed is also expected to continuing with its quantitative tightening (QT) policy.

The GBP/USD price will next react to the important economic data from the UK. On Tuesday morning, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) will publish the latest UK jobs data. Economists expect the data to show that the country’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.5%. They also expect that the average hourly earnings with bonus rose by 5.9%.

These numbers will be followed by the upcoming UK inflation data scheduled for Wednesday. Economists expect that the country’s consumer and producer inflation continued rising in October as gas prices rebounded.

The other key catalyst for the GBP/USD will be the upcoming autumn speech by Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor. In recent statements, Hunt has hinted that the statement was going to hurt as the government attempts to avoid a fiscal cliff. This means higher tax rises for both companies and individuals and a decline in government spending.

GBP/USD forecast

The GBP/USD price continued rising ahead of the coming data from the United Kingdom. On the 4H chart, the pair formed a small dragonfly doji pattern, which is usually a bullish sign. It has also moved above the important support level at 1.1647, which was the highest point on October 26.

The pair has moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved slightly below the overbought level. It wikk likely continue its bullish trend as buyers target the key resistance at 1.1865.


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