Sustained New Trading Lows Speculatively Attractive

The USD/ZAR has managed to sustain its lower range in early trading this morning as the currency pair mirrors the broad Forex market.

The USD/ZAR as of this morning is near the 17.29000 ratio with solid price action flourishing. Having achieved a low of nearly 17.21000 on Friday, the USD/ZAR has kept pace and traded near those lows this morning without suffering an ugly reversal upwards. On Wednesday of last week the USD/ZAR was near the 17.86000 mark, the week before that on Thursday the 3rd of November the currency pair was touching the 18.52000 realm.

The sudden bearish trend within the USD/ZAR is mirroring results across most of the major Forex market with currencies paired against the USD. The past two weeks have seen evidence of a shift in behavioral sentiment in trading and the USD/ZAR has gone along for the bearish ride. On Thursday of last week the USD/ZAR was trading near a high of almost 17.83000.

U.S Inflation Data added Fuel to the Short-Term Bearish Trend in the USD/ZAR

U.S CPI data on Thursday caused an immediate stir with the USD/ZAR.  The fact that inflation numbers came in less than the estimate was taken as a positive sign by financial houses, and that a potential shift in policy from the U.S Federal Reserve will affect their hawkish interest rate rhetoric and turn it more dovish. The ability to see inflation ‘soften’ helped fuel the expectation across Forex that the USD will weaken. By the end of last Thursday the USD/ZAR was trading near 17.33000.

Short-Term Downturn could still Reverse Higher in the USD/ZAR

  • Speculators should not anticipate a one way avenue for the USD/ZAR to emerge, because that is not the way Forex trading works. Reversals higher will certainly be experienced; the question is where resistance will prove durable.
  • If resistance can remain strong near the 17.33000 to 17.40000 this may be a positive signal for more bearish momentum to come in the USD/ZAR.

It should be remembered that in early September the USD/ZAR was trading below the 17.00000 juncture. Behavioral sentiment could change again and bulls can stampede again, the sudden bearish trend which has emerged in the USD/ZAR remains fragile because global market conditions continue to exhibit hints of nervousness.

However, short term speculators may want to continue to wager on downside movement with realistic targets near current technical support levels. Risk management should be used wisely, but selling the USD/ZAR on momentary upticks that challenge resistance, and then igniting selling positions and aiming for the 17.24000 to 17.22000 ratios could prove worthwhile.

USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 17.33500

Current Support: 17.24600

High Target: 17.46800

Low Target: 16.97400


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