Since Friday (black dashed vertical), the US 10-year real rate (top candlestick chart) has declined. At the same time, the US30 (bottom candlestick chart) has appreciated. The two have a correlation coefficient of -65%, reinforcing the inverse relationship.
We have added a 5- and 10-EMA to both candlesticks charts. The real rate’s EMAs are developing angle and separation to the downside. At the same time, the US30‘s EMAs have crossed bullishly. These suggest a risk-on sentiment as we move towards the cash open. If the EMA patterns hold, the US30 will likely benefit from declining rates during the session.