Weekly Forecast 9th – 15th October


The EUR/USD finished trading last week near the 0.97398 mark, this after suffering a rather robust amount of selling on Thursday and Friday.


After trading within sight of the 1.00000 ratio early in the past week, the EUR/USD started to slide lower again on Thursday and before going into the weekend.

The EUR/USD finished trading last week near the 0.97398 mark, this after suffering a rather robust amount of selling on Thursday and Friday.  Rhetoric from the U.S Federal Reserve on Thursday about interest rate policy needing to remain hawkish was reinforced on Friday, when jobs data from the U.S came in stronger than anticipated. The rising costs of energy have not helped the EUR/USD either as inflation remains a dominant concern across Europe.

The ECB remains rather sluggish with interest rate policy compared to many of the other major central banks, outside of the Bank of Japan.  The European Central Bank will conduct an interest rate policy meeting in the last week of October, when they will be expected to hike borrowing rates. While the ECB may have thought inflation would start to decline in the coming months, this notion suffered a blow this week as the price of Crude Oil remained elevated.

Last Week’s Early Results were Wishful Thinking Perhaps for the EUR/USD

On Tuesday and Wednesday of the past week the EUR/USD traded within sight of the 1.00000 ratio, based largely on the belief in financial houses the U.S Fed would become more dovish regarding their interest rate policy. However, when it became clear towards the end of the week that this was wishful thinking the EUR/USD took a bearish turn. Support levels quickly became vulnerable and the 0.99000 mark was penetrated on Thursday and never recovered with a sustained amount of trading above this level.

It appears that a new price range below the 1.00000 is starting to become an accepted reality among financial institutions.  If the ECB raises rates at the end of October, it will still be below the curve created by the U.S Federal Reserve. This fact may fundamentally keep the EUR/USD under parity in the near term; if large Forex traders remain convinced the ECB will remain more dovish with their interest rate policy, due to financial concerns regarding debt in the European Union it will not help bullish EUR/USD perspectives.

  • The inability of the EUR/USD to trade above the 1.00000 mark the past week, signals a lower price range for the currency pair is becoming a reality for the time being.
  • A perceived rather dovish ECB compared to other global central banks is keeping the EUR/USD weaker too.


Support and Resistance for the EUR/USD may Prove Attractive as a Wagering Opportunity

If the EUR/USD suddenly begins to maintain a range between the 0.96000 and 0.98000 levels this could prove a rather interesting value chart for technical traders to try and take advantage.  The 0.97000 mark should be monitored early this week, if nervous sentiment remains strong globally this could set off more selling of the EUR/USD. While it may be looked upon as being oversold, the EUR/USD did trade at a low of nearly 0.95350 on the 28th of September.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 0.95100 to 0.99300

Traders should be braced for volatility this coming week.  If current support levels fail to hold back the tide of selling seen late last week, the EUR/USD could fall below the 0.97000 mark rather easily. The notion that the 0.96000 is oversold may prove to be false also considering the depths the EUR/USD hit only two weeks ago. While optimists got a hold of the markets early last week, nervous conditions have appeared quite easily again, and the worst of nervous market conditions may not be over. If the EUR/USD were to fall below the 0.96000 mark and challenge the 0.95000 ratio it would not be a technical surprise.

Traders who are convinced the EUR/USD is oversold and want to be buyers should be careful. While in the long term bullish speculators may be proven correct, behavioral sentiment is weighing down the EUR/USD and this trend may not disappear in the near term. Buying the EUR/USD should be done with realistic targets and not be overly ambitious.

Having failed to climb above the 1.00000 in the past week of trading, climbing above this mark in the coming week looks very doubtful. Traders may want to aim for polite reversals higher which test the 0.99000 level, but anything much above this in the coming days would be rather surprising.

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